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走向印度2020：挑战与机遇
Toward India 2020: Challenges and Opportunities |
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| 课程网址: |
http://videolectures.net/mitworld_singh_ahluwalia_india/
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| 主讲教师: |
Montek Singh Ahluwalia
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| 开课单位: |
印度政府
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| 开课时间: |
2013-03-15
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| 课程语种: |
英语
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| 中文简介: |
人们有时会问蒙特克·辛格·阿赫卢瓦利亚提出的问题, 这些问题充满了 "抱负的目标", 比如印度何时会 "摆脱贫困". 很少有人能像印度的建筑师之一阿赫卢瓦利亚那样有能力做出回应。令人叹为观止的经济转型。 印度普通公民目前的收入约为美国公民的一半。阿赫卢瓦利亚设想将印度的人均收入增加十倍。他认为这是一个 "简单的算术" 问题. 为了实现这一进步, 印度必须将 gdp 每年增长 9% (相当于个人收入的 7两倍) 维持32年。到 2040, 印度15亿人口可能会更像美国人。"遗憾的是, 我不会在身边看到它," 阿赫卢瓦利亚说。 不过, 如果经济能持续增长, 他将在未来见证 "较为温和的成绩", 印度人的年收入将增加一倍, 达到 6 600 美元, 国家将能够 "为广大民众提供基本水平的服务"其大多数人口, "基本上留下了它的贫困问题。这种增长, 对印度来说是 "极其有价值的目标", 也将在世界其他地区留下印记。一方面, 这将激励其他新兴经济体。这也将改变全球贸易中的力量平衡, 印度和中国的综合经济体将迎战美国。 那么, 印度真的能实现这种无情的经济进步吗？阿赫卢瓦利亚并不确定, 但却援引了日本、韩国和中国的成功, 看到了乐观的理由。在过去8年中, 印度的平均 gdp 增长率为 7.2%, 在当前的全球衰退之后, 印度似乎有可能站稳脚跟。另一方面, 美国充满活力的民主 (在最近的选举中投票给4.2亿人) 可能会使就经济政策及其执行达成协议变得困难。阿赫卢瓦利亚 "没有抱怨", 但他承认, 这种参与性社会 "意味着我们需要花更长的时间去完成需要做的事情"议程向前: 印度社会普遍存在的信任感;过去的改革 "释放了私营部门的巨大能量"; 经济向更大的国内外市场开放;尽管政府发生了变化, 但一般经济政策仍在不断演变。阿赫卢瓦利亚承认, 战胜贫困可能不能解决每个人的成功目标。他认为, 印度的真正目标是 "包容性增长", 即通过市场力量、政府和公共手段公平和建设性地分配经济收益。
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| 课程简介: |
People sometimes ask Montek Singh Ahluwalia questions loaded with “aspirational objectives,” such as when India will “get rid of poverty.” Few are as well equipped to respond as Ahluwalia, one of the architects of India’s breathtaking economic transformation. The current income of an average Indian citizen is about 1/15th that of a U.S. citizen. Ahluwalia envisions increasing India’s per capita income ten fold. He sees this as a matter of “simple arithmetic.” To achieve this advance, India must sustain GDP growth of 9% a year (which corresponds to a 7%/year growth in personal income) -- for 32 years. By 2040, India’s 1.5 billion people could be living more like Americans. “Regrettably, I won’t be around to see it,” says Ahluwalia. By 2020, though, assuming such sustained economic growth, he would be around to witness “more modest results.” Indians would double their annual income to $6,600, and the nation would be able to “provide a basic level of services to the vast majority of its population,” essentially leaving behind its problems of poverty. This kind of growth, “an extremely worthwhile objective” for India, would also leave its mark on the rest of the world. It would inspire other emerging economies, for one thing. It would also shift the balance of power in global trade, with the combined economies of India and China taking on the U.S. So can India really achieve this kind of relentless economic progress? Ahluwalia’s not sure, but invokes the successes of Japan, Korea and China, and sees reasons for optimism. Over the past eight years, India’s averaged a 7.2% GDP growth rate, and looks likely to land on its feet after the current worldwide recession. On the other hand, the nation’s vibrant democracy (420 million voted in the most recent elections) can make agreement on economic policy and its implementation difficult. Ahluwalia is “not complaining,” but acknowledges that this kind of participative society “means we’re taking longer to get done what needs to be done.” He sees institutional strengths that will enable India to push its development agenda forward: a sense of confidence pervades Indian society; past reforms have “unleashed tremendous energy in the private sector;” the economy has opened up to greater domestic and foreign markets; and in spite of changes in government, the general economic policies continue to evolve. Ahluwalia acknowledges that defeating poverty may not address everyone’s goals for success. The true objective for India, he believes, is “inclusive growth,” an equitable and constructive distribution of economic gains via market forces, government and public means.
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| 关 键 词: |
消除贫困; 持续的经济发展; 包容性增长
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| 课程来源: |
视频讲座网
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| 最后编审: |
2021-01-08：yumf
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| 阅读次数: |
42
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