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预测罕见的极端值-最近的发展

Predicting Rare Extreme Values - recent developments
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/solomon_torgo_prevr/  
主讲教师: Luis Torgo
开课单位: 波尔图大学
开课时间: 2007-02-25
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
预测连续变量的稀有极值在一些重要的现实应用中(例如金融,生态等)至关重要。在本研讨会中,我们首先介绍问题及其动机,然后通过一系列现有的方法解决问题,并突出说明其主要局限性。分析的结果是,我们描述了该领域工作的一系列最新进展,这些进展导致引入了成本和收益面的概念。我们在处理回归问题的过程中介绍了这两个新概念及其直觉,这些问题具有不同的观察重要性(因为预测稀有极值的情况是这样)。我们将这两种概念形式化,并说明如何在目标应用程序的上下文中使用它们。最后,我们通过在与连续变量的罕见极值的预测相关的任务中评估模型的上下文中提供了使用这些概念的一些初步结果。
课程简介: Predicting rare extreme values of a continuous variable is of key importance in several important real world applications (e.g. finance, ecology, etc.). In this seminar we start by presenting the problem and its motivation and then go through a series of existing approaches to the problem, highlighting their main limitations. As a result of this analysis we then describe a series of recent developments of our work in this area that has lead to the introduction of the notions of cost and benefit surfaces. We present these two new notions and their intuition in the context of handling regression problems with differentiated importance of observations (as it is the case of predicting rare extreme values). We formalize both notions and explain how they can be used in the context of our target applications. We finish by providing some initial results on the use of these notions in the context of evaluating models in tasks related to the prediction of rare extreme values of a continuous variable.
关 键 词: 连续变量; 收益面; 评估模型
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-09-23:cwx
阅读次数: 62