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因果模型结合瞬时和滞后效应:基于非高斯的识别模型

Causal Modelling Combining Instantaneous and Lagged Effects: an Identifiable Model Based on Non-Gaussianity
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/icml08_hyvarinen_cmc/  
主讲教师: Aapo Hyvärinen
开课单位: 赫尔辛基大学
开课时间: 2008-08-06
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
连续值变量的因果分析通常使用自回归模型或具有瞬时效应的线性高斯贝叶斯网络。高斯贝叶斯网络的估计带来了严重的可识别性问题, 这也是最近提出使用非高斯模型的原因。在这里, 我们展示了如何将非高斯瞬时模型与自回归模型相结合。我们证明了这种非高斯模型是在事先不了解网络结构的情况下是可以识别的, 并提出了一种一致的估计方法。这种方法还指出, 忽略瞬时效应会导致对自回归系数的完全错误估计。
课程简介: Causal analysis of continuous-valued variables typically uses either autoregressive models or linear Gaussian Bayesian networks with instantaneous effects. Estimation of Gaussian Bayesian networks poses serious identifiability problems, which is why it was recently proposed to use non-Gaussian models. Here, we show how to combine the non-Gaussian instantaneous model with autoregressive models. We show that such a non-Gaussian model is identifiable without prior knowledge of network structure, and we propose an estimation method shown to be consistent. This approach also points out how neglecting instantaneous effects can lead to completely wrong estimates of the autoregressive coefficients.
关 键 词: 高斯贝叶斯网络; 非高斯模型; 连续值变量的因果分析
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2020-06-03:张荧(课程编辑志愿者)
阅读次数: 31