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有界理性决策理论的热力学

Thermodynamics as a theory of bounded rational decision-making
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/cyberstat2012_braun_ortega_thermodynamic...  
主讲教师: Daniel Braun; Pedro A. Ortega
开课单位: 马克斯普朗克研究所
开课时间: 信息不详。欢迎您在右侧留言补充。
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
完全理性的决策者最大化预期效用,但至关重要的是忽略了在确定最佳行动时所产生的资源成本。本文提出了一种有限理性决策的信息论形式化,即决策者权衡预期效用和信息处理成本。因此,决策问题可以用热力学和统计物理中众所周知的概念来重新表述,从而可以用控制统计集合的相同指数族分布来描述有界决策者的随机选择行为。这一框架不仅解释了一些众所周知的实验偏离预期效用理论,而且还复制了扩散到约束模型所捕获的心理物理选择模式。此外,该框架允许重新驱动许多决策方案,包括风险敏感和稳健(minimax)决策以及基于相对熵的最新近似最优方案。在资源成本被忽略的限度内,恢复了最大期望效用原则。由于大多数的数学机器都可以从统计物理中借用,主要贡献在于展示有限理性的热力学模型如何能够对各种决策现象和控制方案提供统一的观点。
课程简介: Perfectly rational decision-makers maximize expected utility, but crucially ignore the resource costs incurred when determining optimal actions. Here we propose an information-theoretic formalization of bounded rational decision-making where decision-makers trade off expected utility and information processing costs. As a result, the decision-making problem can be rephrased in terms of well-known concepts from thermodynamics and statistical physics, such that the same exponential family distributions that govern statistical ensembles can be used to describe the stochastic choice behavior of bounded decision-makers. This framework does not only explain some well-known experimental deviations from expected utility theory, but also reproduces psychophysical choice pattern captured by diffusion-to-bound models. Furthermore, this framework allows rederiving a number of decision-making schemes including risk-sensitive and robust (minimax) decision-making as well as more recent approximately optimal schemes that are based on the relative entropy. In the limit when resource costs are ignored, the maximum expected utility principle is recovered. Since most of the mathematical machinery can be borrowed from statistical physics, the main contribution is to show how a thermodynamic model of bounded rationality can provide a unified view of diverse decision-making phenomena and control schemes.
关 键 词: 物理; 统计物理学; 数学; 控制理论
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-12-10:cwx
阅读次数: 44