图 书 馆
生化系统常微分方程模型假设检验方法的比较A comparison of hypothesis testing methods for ODE models of biochemical systems |
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| 课程网址: | http://videolectures.net/pmnp07_vyshemirsky_acoht/ |
| 主讲教师: | Vladislav Vyshemirsky |
| 开课单位: | 格拉斯哥大学 |
| 开课时间: | 2007-09-07 |
| 课程语种: | 英语 |
| 中文简介: |  |
| 课程简介: | In this talk we present a comparison of different methods of testing alternative hypotheses expressed using ODE models of biochemical systems. We investigated applicability, limitations and stability of a range of hypotheses testing methods including maximum likelihood based information criteria, local deterministic approximations around maximum a posteriori estimates (Laplace approximations) for computing marginal likelihoods, importance sampling based marginal likelihood estimators, and a path sampling estimator built upon the principles of thermodynamic integration. We demonstrate that in the cases where models are linear in the parameter space, Laplace approximations provide a fast and stable estimate of the marginal likelihoods required for computing Bayes factors. This estimate, however, fails when the models have non-trivial parameter posteriors. We reject common importance sampling estimators as they produce very unstable estimates in practical cases (relative errors of the estimates vary from 40% to 600% depending on the particular example used). We demonstrate that the annealed importance sampling estimator of the marginal likelihoods and path sampling methods produce very good estimates even in non-trivial cases (relative error within 1%-8%). Maximum likelihood information criteria often produce the correct ordering of the hypotheses. These methods, however, do not produce a quantitative measure of model preference (odds) and sometimes even fail, preferring a more complex model over the true one, and there is no general method to detect such a failure. The study is performed over realistically sized ODE models of biochemical systems using simulated data sets. |
| 关 键 词: | 微分方程; 边际似然; 抽样估计; 生化系统 |
| 课程来源: | 视频讲座网 |
| 最后编审: | 2020-06-02：张荧(课程编辑志愿者) |
| 阅读次数: | 31 |