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利用不精确概率影响图的策略选择

Strategy Selection in Influence Diagrams using Imprecise Probabilities
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/uai08_de_campos_ssid/  
主讲教师: de Campos Cassio P
开课单位: 伦斯勒理工学院
开课时间: 2008-07-30
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
本文提出了一种基于信标网络算法的影响图决策新算法。决策节点与不精确概率分布相关联,并且引入重新公式以求得关于期望效用的全局最大策略。我们使用有限记忆影响图,它概括了大多数影响图的建议并处理同时进行的决策。除了全局最优化方法外,本文还研究了一个保证最大误差的任意时刻近似解,并证明了不精确概率的处理是简单的。讨论了复杂性问题、随机图实验和基于效果的军事规划问题。
课程简介: This paper describes a new algorithm to solve the decision making problem in Influence Diagrams based on algorithms for credal networks. Decision nodes are associated to imprecise probability distributions and a reformulation is introduced that finds the global maximum strategy with respect to the expected utility. We work with Limited Memory Influence Diagrams, which generalize most Influence Diagram proposals and handle simultaneous decisions. Besides the global optimum method, we explore an anytime approximate solution with a guaranteed maximum error and show that imprecise probabilities are handled in a straightforward way. Complexity issues and experiments with random diagrams and an effects-based military planning problem are discussed.
关 键 词: 网络算法; 概率分布; 军事规划问题
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-11-11:lxf
阅读次数: 35