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气候科学:我们知道什么?

Climate Science: What Do We Know?
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/acga09_kajfez_bogataj_cs/  
主讲教师: Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
开课单位: 卢布尔雅那大学
开课时间: 2009-07-13
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
本讲座概述了当前对气候科学的科学认识,即全球气候变化的自然和人为驱动因素。它概述了气候系统中观察到的变化及其与物理过程的关系,并概述了对未来气候变化的预测。“全球warming"这并不意味着全球气候变化是一致的、渐进的,也不可能是良性的。随着地球越来越热,观测到的变化是不均匀的、迅速的、有害的。全球气候破坏无疑是真实的;主要是人类造成的;已经造成重大损害的;增长速度快于预期。什么气候变化将面临风险?首先是水资源的可得性,农场、森林、渔业的生产力,其次是暴风雨、洪水、干旱、野火和海平面上升造成的财产损失,以及在工程环境和物种分布和丰富程度方面的开支。面对气候变化的威胁,人类社会只有三种选择。首先是减缓,即采取措施减缓由人类活动引起的全球气候变化的速度和幅度。第二是适应,即采取措施减少气候变化对人类福祉造成的不利影响。第三个问题是遭受无法通过减缓或适应来避免的不利影响。我们已经做了一些了。只有通过大量的减缓和大量的适应,才能最大限度地减少这种混合带来的痛苦。
课程简介: The lecture provides a summary of the current scientific understanding of climate science on the natural and anthropogenic drivers of changes in global climate. It presents an overview of observed changes in the climate system and their relationships with physical processes as well as an overview of projections for future climate changes. "Global warming" does not imply uniform, gradual nor possibly benign changes in global climate. As Earth is getting hotter, observed changes are non-uniform, rapid and harmful. Global climatic disruption is real without doubt; mainly human-caused; already producing significant harm; and growing more rapidly than expected. What climate change puts at risk? First the availability of water, productivity of farms, forests, fisheries, secondly damages from storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and property losses from sea-level rise, expenditures on engineered environments and distribution and abundance of species. Facing the dangers from climate change there are only three options for human society. First is mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace and magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities. The second is adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur. And the third is suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation. We're already doing some of each. Minimizing the amount of suffering in that mix can only be achieved by doing a lot of mitigation and a lot of adaptation.
关 键 词: 气候科学; 气候系统; 环境
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-10-31:lxf
阅读次数: 62