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惩罚政策的微小变化会导致犯罪爆发How Crime Bursts Can Occur with Minor Changes in Retribution Policy |
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| 课程网址: | http://videolectures.net/ccss09_iglesias_hcbco/ |
| 主讲教师: | Jose Roberto Iglesias |
| 开课单位: | 南里奥格兰德联邦大学 |
| 开课时间: | 2009-07-10 |
| 课程语种: | 英语 |
| 中文简介: |  |
| 课程简介: | We model a system of interacting agents characterized by a given wealth and a certain criminal propensity, measured by an honesty coefficient. This honesty is related to intrinsic factors, like moral barriers, and extrinsic ones, as the risk of being imprisoned if committing an offense. In the simulation the honesty level of the agents is variable, and a function of the level of punition, on one hand, and on the contact with other agents (learning or contagion effect) on the other hand. The number of crimes per habitant is measured as a function of the probability of being caught. A sharp phase transition is observed as a function of the probability of punishment. That means that once criminality has attained a high level, the probability of retribution must considerably increase in order to come back to a state of low criminality. Also, some precursor signals are observed that indicate possible bursts of crime activity. We also analyze other consequences of criminality as the growth of the economy, the inequality in the wealth distribution (the Gini coefficient) and other relevant quantities under different scenarios of criminal activity and probabilities of apprehension. |
| 关 键 词: | 惩罚政策; 改变; 犯罪行为 |
| 课程来源: | 视频讲座网 |
| 最后编审: | 2020-06-08：heyf |
| 阅读次数: | 29 |