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螺旋式走向完全市场和金融动荡

Spiraling Toward Complete Markets and Financial Instability
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/ccss09_marsili_stcmafi/  
主讲教师: Matteo Marsili
开课单位: 国际理论物理中心
开课时间: 2009-07-10
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
金融工具的普及为对冲风险、降低交易成本、完善市场提供了更多机会。这些预测与最近的经验形成了鲜明对比。在最近的经验中,信息不对称和不完全竞争在将不断扩张的大规模杀伤性金融武器市场变成“大规模杀伤性金融武器”方面发挥了重要作用。在此,我认为,市场不完善程度的升级源于金融工具不断扩大时,市场均衡性质发生的变化。这是在一个大的随机经济体的限制下完成的,在这个经济体中,一组消费者投资于银行设计的金融工具,以优化他们未来的消费。我证明,即使在完全竞争的理想情况下,当所有市场参与者都能获得全部信息时,随着市场趋于完全和交易成本的消失,这种均衡也会对市场的不完善表现出明显的脆弱性(或易感性)。因此,不稳定的开始并不需要大的冲击,而是源于平衡的内在本质。一个特别具有破坏性的影响是,复制银行用来对冲新工具的投资组合,需要金融部门内的交易量,而随着市场趋于完备,金融部门之间的交易量会出现差异。随着完全市场理论极限的逼近,这种银行间市场本身发展出一种不同的易感性。类似的方法表明,衍生品市场的扩张会导致基础市场的不稳定和大幅波动。这些结果表明,金融工具的扩散加剧了市场不完善的影响。为了防止反常效应的升级,市场可能需要在扩张过程中越来越引人注目的制度结构。
课程简介: The proliferation of financial instruments provides more opportunities to hedge risks, reducing transaction costs and making markets more complete. These predictions sharply contrasts with recent experience, where asymmetric information and imperfect competition have played a major role in turning expanding credit derivative markets into ”financial weapons of mass destruction”. Here I argue that the escalation of market imperfections originates from the changes which take place in the nature of the market equilibria, when the repertoire of financial instruments expands. This is done in the limit of a large random economy, where a set of consumers invests in financial instruments engineered by banks, in order to optimize their future consumption. I show that, even in the ideal case of perfect competition, where full information is available to all market participants, as markets approach completeness and transaction costs vanish, the equilibrium develops a marked vulnerability (or susceptibility) to market imperfections. Therefore, the onset of instability does not require large shocks, but it rather arises from the intrinsic nature of the equilibrium. One particularly devastating effect is that, replicating portfolios used by banks to hedge new instruments, require trading volumes, within the financial sector, which diverge as the market approaches completeness. Such interbank market itself develops a divergent susceptibility, as the theoretical limit of complete markets is approached. A similar approach shows that the expansion of derivative markets generates instability and large movements in underlying markets. These results suggest that the proliferation of financial instruments exacerbates the effects of market imperfections. In order to prevent an escalation of perverse effects, markets may necessitate institutional structures which are more and more conspicuous as they expand.
关 键 词: 金融工具; 对冲风险; 大规模杀伤性金融武器; 信贷产物衍生品; 金融市场; 脆弱性
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-10-22:cwx
阅读次数: 53