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可混合性是相对于对数损失的贝叶斯风险曲率

Mixability is Bayes Risk Curvature Relative to Log Loss
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/colt2011_williamson_risk/  
主讲教师: Robert C. Williamson
开课单位: 澳大利亚国立大学
开课时间: 2011-08-02
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
损失的混合性决定了在聚合专家对该损失的预测时可能的最佳性能。确定二元损耗的混合常数很简单,但不透明。在二元情况下,我们通过描述适当损失的贝叶斯风险的二阶导数的可混性,使其变得透明和简单。然后我们将这个结果推广到现有结果很少的多级适当损失。我们证明了混合性是由贝叶斯风险的海森值决定的,相对于日志损失的贝叶斯风险的海森值。通过与其他工作的比较,我们得出结论:贝叶斯风险的几何形状限制了预测性能。虽然所有的计算都是针对适当的损失,但我们也展示了如何将结果推广到适当的损失。
课程简介: Mixability of a loss governs the best possible performance when aggregating expert predictions with respect to that loss. The determination of the mixability constant for binary losses is straightforward but opaque. In the binary case we make this transparent and simpler by characterising mixability in terms of the second derivative of the Bayes risk of proper losses. We then extend this result to multiclass proper losses where there are few existing results. We show that mixability is governed by the Hessian of the Bayes risk, relative to the Hessian of the Bayes risk for log loss. We conclude by comparing our result to other work that bounds prediction performance in terms of the geometry of the Bayes risk. Although all calculations are for proper losses, we also show how to carry the results across to improper losses.
关 键 词: 混合性; 预测损失; 二元损耗; 混合常数; 贝叶斯风险曲率
课程来源: 视频讲座网公开课
最后编审: 2019-05-26:cwx
阅读次数: 30