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统计推断、模型选择和决策的蒙特卡罗模拟

Monte Carlo Simulation for Statistical Inference, Model Selection and Decision Making
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/mlss08au_freitas_asm/  
主讲教师: Nando de Freitas
开课单位: 不列颠哥伦比亚大学
开课时间: 2008-03-13
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
**他课程的第一部分**将包括两个演讲。在第一个演讲中,他将介绍用于统计推断的蒙特卡罗模拟的基本原理,重点是重要性采样,粒子滤波和动态模型平滑,马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗,吉布斯和大都会黑斯廷斯,MCMC核的阻塞和混合等算法。 ,蒙特卡罗EM,静态模型的序贯蒙特卡罗,辅助变量方法(Swedsen Wang,混合蒙特卡罗和切片采样)和自适应MCMC。将通过几个示例来说明算法:图像跟踪,机器人,图像注释,概率图形模型和音乐分析。 \\ **第二个演示**将针对模型选择和决策问题。他将描述可逆跳跃MCMC算法并将其应用于简单混合模型和具有未知数量基函数的非线性回归。他将展示如何将此算法应用于一般马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)。本课程还将介绍使用政策梯度,常见随机数生成和高斯过程主动探索的部分观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)的其他蒙特卡罗模拟方法。将给出这些方法在机器人技术和计算机游戏架构设计中的一些应用的概述。演示将结束贝叶斯非线性实验设计的蒙特卡罗模拟问题,应用于金融建模,机器人探索,药物处理,动态传感器网络,最佳测量和主动视觉。
课程简介: **The first part** of his course will consist of two presentations. In the first presentation, he will introduce fundamentals of Monte Carlo simulation for statistical inference, with emphasis on algorithms such as importance sampling, particle filtering and smoothing for dynamic models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings, blocking and mixtures of MCMC kernels, Monte Carlo EM, sequential Monte Carlo for static models, auxiliary variable methods (Swedsen-Wang, hybrid Monte Carlo and slice sampling), and adaptive MCMC. The algorithms will be illustrated with several examples: image tracking, robotics, image annotation, probabilistic graphical models, and music analysis. \\ **The second presentation** will target model selection and decision making problems. He will describe the reversible-jump MCMC algorithm and illustrate it with application to simple mixture models and nonlinear regression with an unknown number of basis functions. He will show how to apply this algorithm to general Markov decision processes (MDPs). The course will also cover other Monte Carlo simulation methods for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) using policy gradients, common random number generation, and active exploration with Gaussian processes. An outline to some applications of these methods to robotics and the design of computer game architectures will be given. The presentation will end with the problem of Monte Carlo simulation for Bayesian nonlinear experimental design, with application to financial modeling, robot exploration, drug treatments, dynamic sensor networks, optimal measurement and active vision.
关 键 词: 统计推断; 蒙特卡罗模拟; 可逆跳跃
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-07-24:cwx
阅读次数: 46