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马尔可夫链的贝叶斯分析

Bayesian Analysis of Markov Chains
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/nips09_diaconis_bamc/  
主讲教师: Persi Diaconis
开课单位: 斯坦福大学
开课时间: 2010-01-19
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
假设我们观察数据并想测试它是否来自马尔可夫链。如果是,我们可能想要估计转换运算符。以贝叶斯方式工作,我们必须指定先验并计算后验。如果我们想在可逆马尔可夫链上放置先验,那么有趣的事情就会发生。有强化随机游走的有用连接(与Silke Rolles合作)。将描述大规模应用于蛋白质折叠。更一般地,这些问题出现在用马尔可夫链近似动力系统中。对于连续状态空间,通常的共轭先验分析会中断。 Wai Liu(斯坦福大学)的论文工作给出了有用的先验家庭,计算“很容易”。这些似乎在测试问题中运行良好,并且可以证明是一致的。
课程简介: Suppose we observe data and want to test if it comes from a Markov chain. If it does, we may want to estimate the transition operator. Working in a Bayesian way, we have to specify priors and compute posteriors. Interesting things happen if we want to put priors on reversible Markov chains. There are useful connections with reinforced random walk (work with Silke Rolles). On large-scale application to protein folding will be described. More generally, these problems arise in approximating a dynamical system by a Markov chain. For continuous state spaces, the usual conjugate prior analysis breaks down. Thesis work of Wai Liu (Stanford) gives useful families of priors where computations are "easy." These seem to work well in test problems and can be proved consistent.
关 键 词: 马尔可夫链; 转换运算符; 近似动力系统
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-07-24:cwx
阅读次数: 49