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格兰杰因果关系与动态结构系统

Granger Causality and Dynamic Structural Systems
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/nips09_white_gcdss/  
主讲教师: Halbert White
开课单位: 加州大学圣地亚哥分校
开课时间: 2010-01-19
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
使用一般适用的动态结构方程组,我们给出了适用于结构VAR和表示时间序列自然实验的递归结构的直接和总结构因果关系的自然定义。这些概念使我们能够在格兰杰(G)因果关系和结构因果关系之间建立一个先前缺失的联系,通过表明,给定相应的外生性条件形式,G因果关系当且仅当相应形式的结构因果关系成立时才成立。应用的重要性是有限阶G因果关系的结构表征,它构成了大多数实证研究的基础。我们证明条件外生性对于有效的结构推理是必要的,并证明在没有结构因果关系的情况下,条件外生性等同于G非因果关系。我们提供实用的新G因果关系和条件外生性测试,并描述它们在结构因果关系测试中的应用。
课程简介: Using a generally applicable dynamic structural system of equations, we give natural definitions of direct and total structural causality applicable to both structural VARs and recursive structures representing time-series natural experiments. These concepts enable us to forge a previously missing link between Granger (G-) causality and structural causality by showing that, given a corresponding conditional form of exogeneity, G- causality holds if and only if a corresponding form of structural causality holds. Of importance for applications is the structural characterization of finite-order G-causality, which forms the basisfor most empirical work. We show that conditional exogeneity is necessary for valid structural inference and prove that in the absence of structural causality, conditional exogeneity is equivalent to G non-causality. We provide practical new G-causality and conditional exogeneity tests and describe their use in testing for structural causality.
关 键 词: 结构方程组; 递归结构; 格兰杰因果关系
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-07-25:cwx
阅读次数: 88