0


Copula过程

Copula Processes
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/nips2010_wilson_cp/  
主讲教师: Andrew Gordon Wilson
开课单位: 康奈尔大学
开课时间: 2011-03-25
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
我们定义了一个copula过程,它描述了任意多个随机变量之间的依赖关系,而与它们的边际分布无关。作为一个例子,我们开发了随机波动率模型,高斯Copula过程波动率(GCPV),以预测一系列随机变量的潜在标准偏差。为了进行预测,我们使用贝叶斯推理,使用拉普拉斯近似,并使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗作为替代。我们发现我们的模型在模拟和财务数据方面可以超越GARCH。与GARCH不同,GCPV可以轻松处理缺失的数据,包含时间以外的协变量,并为丰富的协方差结构建模。
课程简介: We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.
关 键 词: 随机波动率模型; 高斯过程波动率; 贝叶斯推理
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-07-26:cwx
阅读次数: 82