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马尔可夫跳跃过程的变分推理

Variational Inference for Markov Jump Processes
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/pim07_sanguinetti_vim/  
主讲教师: Guido Sanguinetti
开课单位: 谢菲尔德大学
开课时间: 2007-11-06
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
马尔可夫跳跃过程(MJP)是我们对科学和技术中许多重要系统的理解的基础。它们提供了一个严格的概率框架来模拟相互作用个体的群体(物种)的联合动态,应用范围从电信网络中的信息包到流行病学和环境中的人口水平。这些过程通常是非线性的并且高度耦合,从而产生非平凡的稳态(通常称为新兴属性)。不幸的是,这也意味着精确的统计推断是不可行的,必须在这些系统的分析中进行近似。在过去的一个世纪中非常成功的传统方法是忽略过程的离散性质,并用确定性过程逼近随机过程,其行为由非线性耦合的ODE系统描述。这种近似依赖于随机波动与平均人口数量相比可忽略不计。在许多重要的情况下,这种假设是站不住脚的:例如,随机波动被认为是造成许多重要生物现象的原因,从细胞分化到病原体毒力。研究人员现在能够准确估计细胞内某些物种的大分子数量,从而需要实用的统计工具来处理离散数据。
课程简介: Markov jump processes (MJPs) underpin our understanding of many important systems in science and technology. They provide a rigorous probabilistic framework to model the joint dynamics of groups (species) of interacting individuals, with applications ranging from information packets in a telecommunications network to epidemiology and population levels in the environment. These processes are usually non-linear and highly coupled, giving rise to non-trivial steady states (often referred to as emerging properties). Unfortunately, this also means that exact statistical inference is unfeasible and approximations must be made in the analysis of these systems. A traditional approach, which has been very successful throughout the past century, is to ignore the discrete nature of the processes and to approximate the stochastic process with a deterministic process whose behaviour is described by a system of non-linear, coupled ODEs. This approximation relies on the stochastic fluctuations being negligible compared to the average population counts. There are many important situations where this assumption is untenable: for example, stochastic fluctuations are reputed to be responsible for a number of important biological phenomena, from cell differentiation to pathogen virulence. Researchers are now able to obtain accurate estimates of the number of macromolecules of a certain species within a cell, prompting a need for practical statistical tools to handle discrete data.
关 键 词: 马尔可夫跳跃过程; 概率框架; 非线性
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2020-01-13:chenxin
阅读次数: 67