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还有两件事要担心

Two More Things to Worry About
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/mitworld_barnett_tmtwa/  
主讲教师: Arnold I. Barnett
开课单位: 麻省理工学院
开课时间: 2014-01-06
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:

阿诺德·巴内特(Arnold Barnett)以惯常的四肢形式重述了他最喜欢的两个主题:对美国选举学院的改进和航空安全。

首先,巴内特(Barnett)建议的全国大选解决方案是选举学院的“娱乐之家镜子”,允许获胜者获得所有结果。他的公式涉及加权投票份额,类似于教授用于确定课程等级的加权平均份额。他的方程式可以将权力转移到较小的州,而不会在紧随民众投票的情况下轻视较大的州。

然后,他提供了大量的统计数据,可以减轻热情的航空乘客的焦虑。自1960年代以来,巴奈特就已经确定了精确的度量标准:“在第一世界国内客运服务中,每次飞行的死亡风险”已经提高了70倍,当时,一架飞机失事导致一名乘客死亡的机率高达百万分之一。巴内特说:“当您考虑到喷气航空中所有可能导致旅客死亡的问题时,风险水平现在为7,000万分之一便构成了世界第八大奇迹。”

前往发展中国家的航空旅行虽然不能提供足够的保证(如今,死于飞机失事的机会是200万),但这一数字显示出稳定的增长,而巴尼特的研究表明,是否

空中旅行的真正风险来自恐怖分子和罪犯的威胁,巴尼特在本季度没有提供太多安慰。他驳斥了一个建议,那就是不要在飞机机舱中使用笔记本电脑,因为“您无法在飞机上完成的工作就是您无法与孩子在家度过的时光。”另一方面,所有美国承运人都习惯使用积极的行李匹配,这将是另一个有益的安全保护层。巴尼特(Barnett)相信“航空公司的劳资关系是如此脆弱,以至于他们害怕要求行李处理人员承担额外的任务。”他计算出了数学结果,并表明应该将一架客机从空中炸开,而另外三架则要在几分钟之内起飞,“实际上,我们无能为力,没有足够的时间来传达可靠的警告以采取措施。

但是,尽管恐怖主义的危险远比死于事故的危险大,但“我们不能因此而放弃飞行。”巴内特总结道:“我们处于未知领域,要做出判断以继续生活,并采取适当的预防措施,我们不知道那意味着什么。”

课程简介: In customary, loose-limbed form, Arnold Barnett reprises two of his favorite themes: improvements to the U.S. Electoral College, and aviation safety. First up, Barnett’s suggested fix for national elections, which through the “fun-house mirror” of the Electoral College, permit winner-take-all results. His formula involves a weighted vote share, akin to the weighted average professors use for determining a course grade. His equation would shift power to smaller states, without slighting the larger ones -- while still closely following the popular vote. He then offers an abundance of statistics that should relieve antsy air passengers of much anxiety. The precise metric Barnett has settled on, “death risk per flight, in first world domestic passenger services,” has improved 70 fold since the 1960s, when a passenger had a one in 1 million chance of dying in a plane crash. Says Barnett, “When you consider all the things that can go wrong in jet aviation that would lead to death of passengers, the fact that the risk level is now one in 70 million constitutes the 8th wonder of the world.” While air travel to developing nations does not provide as much reassurance (the chance of dying in a plane crash is one in 2 million these days), the numbers show steady improvement, and Barnett’s research demonstrates it doesn’t much matter whether a passenger flies the local carrier, or a ‘first-world’ airline. The real risk in air travel comes from threats posed by terrorists and criminals, and Barnett doesn’t provide much solace in this quarter. He dismisses one suggestion that laptops be eliminated in airline cabins, because “work you can’t do on a plane is time you can’t spend with your kids at home.” On the other hand, positive bag matching, which all U.S. carriers used to practice, would be another helpful layer of security. Barnett believes that “labor relations in the airlines are so brittle that they are afraid to ask baggage handlers to take on an additional task.” He’s worked out the math, and shown that should one airliner be blown out of the sky, and three others set to go off within minutes, “realistically there’s nothing we can do—there’s not enough time to communicate a credible warning to lead to measures to reduce the risk to other planes.” Yet, even though the risk of terrorism is greater by far than the risk of dying in an accident, “we can’t give up flying because of it.” Concludes Barnett, “We’re in an uncharted area -- making judgments to continue to live our lives, and making adequate precautions, and we don’t know what that means.”
关 键 词: 民众投票; 统计数据; 美国选举学院的改进
课程来源: 视频讲座网
数据采集: 2020-09-28:wyr
最后编审: 2021-09-15:zyk
阅读次数: 76