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了解全球变暖辩论-怀疑论者的观点
Understanding the Global Warming Debate - A Skeptic’s View |
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| 课程网址: |
http://videolectures.net/zv_eichinger_global_warming/
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| 主讲教师: |
Samo Stanič
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| 开课单位: |
新戈里卡大学
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| 开课时间: |
2017-03-08
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| 课程语种: |
英语
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| 中文简介: |
不幸的是，气候辩论已经演变成对决的人身攻击，这排除了认真的讨论和合理的政策。通常，理性讨论会发现现有理论的问题并导致其纠正。缺乏这样的讨论导致了气候科学的停滞（事实上，最近的一篇论文表明，我们对大规模事件（如厄尔尼诺现象）的预测能力在过去20年中变得更糟）。本次演讲将从气候怀疑论者的角度探讨“灾难性的人为全球变暖理论”的假设。这是通过遵循逻辑链来实现的，通过这种逻辑，以某种方式人为的变暖变得足够严重，其影响是灾难性的，因此有理由立即采取可能代价高昂的政府行动。对链条中的主要环节进行审查，以确定双方之间的一致意见和分歧点。将理论与实际数据进行比较将使观察者能够得出自己的结论，即链条中环节的科学基础的强度以及采取激烈行动的必要性。这种类型的分析也有助于解释为什么问题的双方似乎相互交谈。
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| 课程简介: |
It is unfortunate that the climate debate has devolved into dueling ad-hominem attacks which preclude serious discussion and rational policies. Normally, rational discussion identifies problems with existing theories and leads to their correction. The lack of such discussion has led to stagnation in the science of climate (indeed, a recent paper indicates that our predictive capability for large scale events (like an El Niño) has gotten worse in the last 20 years). This talk will examine the hypothesis of “catastrophic man-made global warming theory” from the point of view of a climate skeptic. This is done by following the chain of logic by which warming that is somehow man-made becomes serious enough that the effects are catastrophic and thus justify immediate and likely-expensive government action. The major links in the chain are examined to identify points of agreement and disagreement between the sides. Comparisons of the theory to actual data will allow the observers to draw their own conclusions about the strength of the scientific basis for the links in the chain and the necessity for drastic action. This type of analysis also lends itself to an explanation of why the two sides of the question seem to talk past each other.
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| 关 键 词: |
气候辩论; 气候科学; 气候怀疑论者; 人为全球变暖理论
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| 课程来源: |
视频讲座网
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| 数据采集: |
2020-11-19：cjy
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| 阅读次数: |
33
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