图 书 馆
技术与组合进化Technology and Combinatorial Evolution |
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| 课程网址: | http://videolectures.net/NTUcomplexity2017_arthur_technology_and_... |
| 主讲教师: | W. Brian Arthur |
| 开课单位: | 圣菲学院 |
| 开课时间: | 2017-04-03 |
| 课程语种: | 英语 |
| 中文简介: |  亚瑟（Arthur）长期以来一直着迷于构建更现实的经济学。长期以来，标准经济学一直以超理性参与者在静态均衡世界中运作的思想为基础。现在，其他方法也应运而生，而经济学正处于彻底改革之中。在1980年代后期，亚瑟（Arthur）和他的团队在圣达菲研究所（Santa Fe Institute）开始提出另一种观点，即所谓的“复杂性经济学”。该经济学假设经济不是一个完美的平衡机器，而是一个不断发展的复杂系统。经济中的行为者不一定会面临定义明确的问题，也不一定会在做出决策时使用超人的理性。他们探索，尝试变得有意义，并对共同创造的结果做出反应和再反应。从这种角度看，经济不是处于停滞状态，而是始终形成，始终发展，始终“发现”新鲜事物。会发生泡沫和崩溃，可以“博弈”或开发市场，历史和制度也很重要。结果是对经济的严格而现实的描述。 在1990年代中期，亚瑟（Arthur）对技术产生了兴趣。新技术从何而来？发明到底如何运作？什么是创新，如何实现？为什么某些地区（例如硅谷）是创新的温床，而其他地区却之以鼻？技术是否像生物生命一样，是从早期形式演化而来的？经济本身如何从技术中崛起？亚瑟（Arthur）于2009年出版了《技术的本质：什么是技术以及它如何发展》一书，试图回答这些问题。它认为所有技术都有某些共同的原则。这些决定了技术的特征以及新技术的产生以及创新的原理。 在1980年代，亚瑟（Arthur）为回报不断增长的经济学建立了理论框架，特别是研究了锁定收益的动力。受小型随机事件影响的许多可能结果之一。 （他的几篇论文收录于他1994年的著作《经济中的收益增加和路径依赖》。）高科技在收益增加的情况下运作，因此在这里网络效应和锁定很重要。 |
| 课程简介: | Arthur's long-term fascination has been with constructing an economics that is more realistic. Standard economics has long been based on the idea of hyper-rational actors operating in a static equilibrium world. Now other approaches are coming to the fore and economics is in the midst of a radical remaking. In the late-1980s, Arthur and his group at the Santa Fe Institute began developing an alternative view that's come to be called "complexity economics." This economics assumes that the economy is not a perfecty balanced machine, but an evolving complex system. Actors in the economy do not necessarily face well-defined problems or use super-human rationality in making their decisions. They explore, try to make sense, and react and re-react to the outcomes they together create. Viewed this way, the economy is not in stasis, but always forming, always evolving, always "discovering" fresh novelty. Bubbles and crashes happen, markets can be "gamed" or exploited, and history and institutions matter. The result is a rigorous but realistic picture of the economy. In the mid-1990s, Arthur became intrigued with questions about technology. Where do new technologies come from—and how exactly does invention work? What constitutes innovation and how is it achieved? Why are certain regions–Silicon Valley for example–hotbeds of innovation, while others languish? Does technology, like biological life, evolve from earlier forms? And how does the economy itself emerge from its technologies? The book Arthur published in 2009, The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves, (below) attempts to answer these questions. It argues that all technologies share certain principles; these determine the character of technology and how novel technologies come into being —and hence how innovation works. In the 1980s Arthur developed a theoretical framework for economics under increasing returns, in particular studying the dynamics of lock-in to one of many possible outcomes under the influence of small, random events. (Several of his papers are collected in his 1994 book Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. ) High tech operates under increasing returns, and so here network effects and lock-in are important. |
| 关 键 词: | 标准经济学; 复杂性经济学; 经济崛起 |
| 课程来源: | 视频讲座网 |
| 数据采集: | 2020-11-22：cjy |
| 最后编审: | 2020-11-22：cjy |
| 阅读次数: | 80 |