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使用语法演变的金融时间序列建模

Modelling Financial Time Series using Grammatical Evolution
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/amlcf09_adamu_mfts/  
主讲教师: Kamal Adamu
开课单位: 埃塞克斯大学
开课时间: 2009-08-21
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
传统的价格模型及其统计签名通常基于限制性假设,例如线性。此外,模型开发人员面临模型选择问题和模型不确定性。在本文中,我们介绍了一种基于语法演化(GE)的方法来演化预测财务回报的模型,并且我们研究了这些模型的盈利能力。我们的实证分析表明,对于某些证券,我们的方法能够产生回报模型,与在无摩擦市场假设下使用Aikake信息准则(AIC)选择的自回归模型相比,这导致更有利可图的交易。
课程简介: The traditional models of price, and its statistical signatures are often based on limiting assumptions, such as linearity. Moreover, the model developer is faced with the model selection problem, and model uncertainty. In this paper we introduce a method based on Grammatical Evolution (GE) to evolve models for predicting financial returns, and we examine the profitability of these models. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that for some securities our method is able to produce models of return that are lead to more profitable trading compared with an Autoregressive model picked using Aikake Information Criterion (AIC), under the assumption of frictionless markets.
关 键 词: 价格的传统模式; 限制性假设; 回波模型
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2020-06-29:yumf
阅读次数: 62