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贝叶斯时间序列建模:可扩展性的结构化表示

Bayesian Time Series Modeling: Structured Representations for Scalability
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/icml2015_fox_structured_representations/  
主讲教师: Emily Fox
开课单位: 华盛顿大学统计系
开课时间: 2015-12-05
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
从神经科学、基因组学和环境监测到基于以前不可用的技术和基础设施的电子商务,各种领域正在收集越来越复杂的时间序列。这些数据集可以被视为提供单一的高维时间序列,也可以被视为时间序列的大量集合,它们之间存在复杂且可能不断发展的关系。对于可伸缩性,发现和利用数据流或维度之间的稀疏依赖关系是至关重要的。这种独立数据源的表示结构已经在机器学习社区得到了广泛的探索。然而,在关于大数据的讨论中,尽管时间序列的重要性和普遍性,但如何大规模分析这些数据的问题受到的关注有限,这代表了一个研究机会领域。对于这些感兴趣的时间序列,有两个关键的建模组件:动态和关系模型,以及它们之间的相互作用。在本教程中,我们将回顾一些基本的时间序列模型,包括隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)和向量自回归(VAR)过程。这种动态模型及其扩展已被证明在捕获个体数据流(如人类运动、语音、脑电图记录和基因组序列)的复杂动态方面非常有用。然而,本教程的重点是如何部署可伸缩的表示结构,以捕获数据流之间的稀疏依赖关系。特别是,我们考虑了聚类,有向和无向图形模型,以及时间序列背景下的低维嵌入。重点是从数据中学习这种结构。我们还将提供一些关于在大规模时间序列中执行有效推理的新计算方法的见解。在整个教程中,我们将重点介绍用于学习和推理的贝叶斯和贝叶斯非参数方法。贝叶斯方法通过自然地整合和传播不确定性概念以及实现异构数据源的集成,为检查复杂数据流提供了一个有吸引力的框架;贝叶斯非参数方面允许动态和关系结构的复杂性适应观测数据。
课程简介: Time series of increasing complexity are being collected in a variety of fields ranging from neuroscience, genomics, and environmental monitoring to e-commerce based on technologies and infrastructures previously unavailable. These datasets can be viewed either as providing a single, high-dimensional time series or as a massive collection of time series with intricate and possibly evolving relationships between them. For scalability, it is crucial to discover and exploit sparse dependencies between the data streams or dimensions. Such representational structures for independent data sources have been extensively explored in the machine learning community. However, in the conversation on big data, despite the importance and prevalence of time series, the question of how to analyze such data at scale has received limited attention and represents an area of research opportunities. For these time series of interest, there are two key modeling components: the dynamic and relational models, and their interplay. In this tutorial, we will review some foundational time series models, including the hidden Markov model (HMM) and vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Such dynamical models and their extensions have proven useful in capturing complex dynamics of individual data streams such as human motion, speech, EEG recordings, and genome sequences. However, a focus of this tutorial will be on how to deploy scalable representational structures for capturing sparse dependencies between data streams. In particular, we consider clustering, directed and undirected graphical models, and low-dimensional embeddings in the context of time series. An emphasis is on learning such structure from the data. We will also provide some insights into new computational methods for performing efficient inference in large-scale time series. Throughout the tutorial we will highlight Bayesian and Bayesian nonparametric approaches for learning and inference. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for examining complex data streams by naturally incorporating and propagating notions of uncertainty and enabling integration of heterogenous data sources; the Bayesian nonparametric aspect allows the complexity of the dynamics and relational structure to adapt to the observed data.
关 键 词: 时间序列; 环境监测; 电子商务; 可伸缩性
课程来源: 视频讲座网
数据采集: 2023-04-24:chenxin01
最后编审: 2023-05-18:chenxin01
阅读次数: 25