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长短记忆过程:微观社会联系的增长动态建模

Long Short Memory Process: Modeling Growth Dynamics of Microscopic Social Connectivity
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/kdd2017_zang_growth_dynamics/  
主讲教师: 臧成熙
开课单位: 清华大学
开课时间: 2017-10-10
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
人们如何在社交网络中动态交友?个人增加社交联系的时间模式是什么?控制这些时间模式形成的基本机制是什么?无论网络社会系统还是物理社会系统,它们的结构和动态主要由每个个体的连接动态驱动。然而,由于缺乏实证数据,人们对微观层面的社会连通性的实证动态模式知之甚少,更不用说控制这些微观动态的规律或模型了。 我们考察了中国最大的在线社交网络“微信”在两年内的详细成长过程,该网络拥有 3 亿用户和 47.5 亿个链接。我们发现不同用户的社交连接存在广泛的长期幂律增长和短期爆发性增长。我们提出了三个关键因素,即平均效应、多尺度效应和相关效应,它们在微观层面上控制着观察到的增长模式。因此,我们提出了结合这些成分的长短记忆过程,证明它成功地再现了经验数据中观察到的复杂生长模式。通过分析建模参数,我们发现了经验增长动态背后的统计规律。
课程简介: How do people make friends dynamically in social networks? What are the temporal patterns for an individual increasing its social connectivity? What are the basic mechanisms governing the formation of these temporal patterns? No matter cyber or physical social systems, their structure and dynamics are mainly driven by the connectivity dynamics of each individual. However, due to the lack of empirical data, little is known about the empirical dynamic patterns of social connectivity at microscopic level, let alone the regularities or models governing these microscopic dynamics. We examine the detailed growth process of "WeChat", the largest online social network in China, with 300 million users and 4.75 billion links spanning two years. We uncover a wide range of long-term power law growth and short-term bursty growth for the social connectivity of different users. We propose three key ingredients, namely average-effect, multiscale-effect and correlation-effect, which govern the observed growth patterns at microscopic level. As a result, we propose the long short memory process incorporating these ingredients, demonstrating that it successfully reproduces the complex growth patterns observed in the empirical data. By analyzing modeling parameters, we discover statistical regularities underlying the empirical growth dynamics. Our model and discoveries provide a foundation for the microscopic mechanisms of network growth dynamics, potentially leading to implications for prediction, clustering and outlier detection on human dynamics.
关 键 词: 微观社会; 微观动态; 数据科学
课程来源: 视频讲座网
数据采集: 2023-12-26:wujk
最后编审: 2023-12-26:wujk
阅读次数: 10