| 中文简介: |
"我们的机器正在失控" 是托马斯·克里斯托弗对我们因对能源的贪得无厌的胃口而面临的后果的清醒评估。克里斯托弗对能源市场、核电站和发电厂的设计和运营进行了清晰而详细的描述, 并对我们的能源未来发出了直言不讳的信息。 克里斯托弗警告说, 燃料成本也是如此, 电价也是如此。而燃料的成本, 无论是生产我们 6 0%-7 0% 电力的煤炭, 还是天然气, 都在飙升。克里斯托弗认为, 今天的资源短缺不像他所知道的任何一个, 电力市场因此是极不稳定的。消费者目前 – 受到许多州对公用事业的立法 – 缓冲。但燃料价格继续上涨, 因为中国和印度进口美国煤炭;美国越来越多地进口天然气;和公用事业昂贵的改造工厂, 以减少排放。国内需求每年增长 3%, 因此电力成本也将随之上升。克里斯托弗说, 根据你在美国的居住地, 预计每年的利率增长率将在15% 至50% 之间。 而这就是核电的来龙去脉;经济学使它不可避免, 克里斯托弗说。瘦身反应堆的施工设计和不那么繁琐的联邦许可程序相结合, 将使新一代核电站成为可能--这是几十年来第一个上线的核电站。克里斯托弗描述了 17, 000 页的许可文件, 详细介绍了这样的安全功能, 如工厂将如何抵御满载的大型喷气式飞机坠毁在其反应堆安全大楼或乏燃料坑。随着对可再生能源需求的不断增长, 美国政府试图通过支持银行贷款来鼓励这些 4 0亿美元至 6 0亿美元项目中的第一批。克里斯托弗指出, 在 seabrook 和 shoreham 导致漫长的许可程序和不断攀升的建筑成本后, 很少有银行愿意首先跳槽进入融资游戏。 虽然新工厂的容量 (1650 兆瓦) 比美国运行的104个老工厂要大, 即使有几座工厂到2015年上线 (最早的预测), 克里斯托弗指出, 美国的需求正在以每台20至 30, 000 兆瓦的速度增长年, 节能不会削减到这一需求足以压低价格。"中国需要核电作为发电结构的一部分, 但他的结论是" 不过, 考虑到核能只占含量的 2 0%, 事实是, 我们的社会将不得不适应高度电价 "
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| 课程简介: |
“This machine of ours is running out of control” is Thomas A. Christopher’s sobering assessment of the consequences we face as a result of our insatiable appetite for energy. Christopher provides lucid and detailed descriptions of energy markets, nuclear and power plant design and operations, and a blunt message about our energy future. As goes the cost of fuel, so goes the price of electricity, Christopher warns. And the cost of fuel, whether coal, which produces 60-70% of our electricity, or natural gas, is spiking upward. Christopher sees resource shortages today unlike any he’s ever known, and electricity markets are consequently extremely volatile. Consumers are buffered – for the moment – by legislation many states impose on utilities. But fuel prices continue their rise, because China and India import U.S. coal; the U.S. increasingly imports natural gas; and utilities expensively retrofit plants to reduce emissions. Domestic demand increases 3% per year, so electricity costs will follow. Depending on where you live in the U.S., Christopher says to expect rate increases of 15% to 50% a year. And this is where nuclear power comes in; the economics make it inevitable, Christopher says. A combination of slimmed-down reactor construction designs and a less cumbersome federal permitting process will make possible a new generation of nuclear plants - the first to come online in decades. Christopher describes 17,000- page permitting documents detailing such safety features as how a plant will withstand the crash of a fully loaded jumbo jet into its reactor containment building or spent fuel pit. With the growing demand for renewable energy, the U.S. government is attempting to encourage the first handful of these $4- to $6-billion projects by backing up bank loans. After Seabrook and Shoreham led to protracted licensing processes and escalating construction costs, few banks want to be first to jump into the financing game, notes Christopher. While the new plants have larger capacities (1650 megawatts) than the 104 older plants running in the U.S., and even if several should come online by 2015 (the earliest projections), Christopher points out that U.S. demand is growing by 20 to 30 thousand megawatts per year, and energy conservation won't cut into this demand sufficiently to keep prices down. Because of spiraling costs, "The country needs nuclear power as one part of the electricity generation mix." Nevertheless, he concludes, "given that nuclear is only 20% of the content, the truth is our society is going to have to get adjusted to high electricity prices."
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