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凭借惊人的统计数据, 约翰·费尔南德斯说服了他的听众, 迅速扩张的城市中心正在消耗太多的世界资源, 为全球危机奠定了基础。然而, 费尔南德斯用一些可以帮助人类生活在环境手段中的明亮设计例子来反驳自己的惨淡景象。费尔南德斯谈到了我们在家里和工作中用来避难的建筑, 以及连接这些建筑的基础设施。能源被消耗来建造 (和拆除) 这些地方, 移动材料, 并在里面用光、热和通风来维持人们的生活。如今, 一个典型的美国公民一生将消耗相当于360万磅的矿物和燃料。美国有1.3亿栋居民楼, 我们每年增加180万套住宅。但与中国相比, 这算不了什么, 费尔南德斯说。上海每年增加的建筑空间比曼哈顿所有的建筑空间都要多。80% 的二氧化碳排放量是生活在城市中的人直接或间接造成的, 据估计, 到 2040, 当全球人口达到9100亿时, 这将使目前生活在城市中的30亿人口再增加25亿人。很简单, 地球可能无法支持一个势不可挡、能源匮乏的城市人口的需求。费尔南德斯描述了人类的 "生态足迹". 他指出, 在 20世纪80年代末, 我们通过了一个 "不祥的门槛", 当时人类开始不可阻挡地吞噬行星资源--"挖掘自然"资本, "费尔南德斯说。被砍倒房屋的老生长林不能卷土重来, 生态系统也会崩溃。然而, 即使我们继续消费我们的全球家园, 费尔南德斯看到了在我们的全球建筑环境中保持需求稳定的可能性。他展示了被动家庭 (上世纪30年代由麻省理工学院首创) 的例子, 这些家庭恢复和循环人们产生的热量;在玻璃上烘焙搪瓷的窗户, 设计用于最大限度地提高冬季太阳热量的增益;材料的耐热性是当今家庭绝缘材料的10-20 倍;遮阳和遮阳的太阳能住宅和商业高层建筑;社区发展中的微型风力涡轮机和电网----综合起来, 即使在全球人口和富裕程度上升的情况下, 这些涡轮机和电网也可能使我们的物质和能源需求保持稳定。"房间里的大象" 是气候变化, 可能会压倒这些新生的努力。费尔南德斯还认为, 美国建筑业每年 6, 000亿美元投资研发 & 研发, 令人惊讶的是, 该行业在前瞻性思维方面的投资是可比行业的十分之一。
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With staggering statistics, John Fernandez persuades his audience that rapidly expanding urban centers are consuming too much of the world’s resources, setting the stage for global crisis. Yet Fernandez counters his own bleak picture with some bright examples of design that could help humans live within their environmental means. Fernandez talks of the buildings we use for shelter at home and work, and the infrastructure that connects these. Energy is consumed to construct (and demolish) these places, to move materials, and sustain people when inside, with light, heat and ventilation. A typical U.S. citizen today will consume the equivalent of 3.6 million pounds of minerals and fuels in one lifetime. The U.S. has 130 million residential buildings, and we’re adding 1.8 million residences annually. But that’s nothing compared to China, says Fernandez. Shanghai adds more building space annually than exists in all of Manhattan. 80% of CO2 emissions are caused directly or indirectly by people living in cities, and it’s estimated that when the global population hits 9-10 billion by 2040, that will add another 2.5 billion people to the three billion who currently live in cities. The earth, quite simply, may not be able to support the needs of an overwhelming and energy hungry urban populace. Fernandez describes humanity’s “ecological footprint.” He notes that in the late 1980s we passed one “ominous threshold,” when humans began devouring planetary resources unsustainably -- “digging into the natural capital,” as Fernandez puts it. Old growth forests chopped down for houses can’t spring back and ecosystems collapse. Yet even as we continue consuming ourselves out of our global home, Fernandez sees possibilities of holding demand steady in our global built environment. He shows examples of passive homes (pioneered first in the 1930s by MIT) that recover and circulate heat produced by people; windows in which enamel is baked on to glass designed to maximize solar heat gain in winter; materials with 10-20 times the thermal resistance of today’s home insulation; solar homes and commercial high rises that shield and shade themselves; micro wind turbines and power grids in community developments -- which, taken together, might keep our material and energy demand steady even as global population and affluence rise. The “elephant in the room” is climate change, which may overwhelm these nascent efforts. Fernandez also sees a dire need for investment in R&D by the $600 billion-per-year U.S. construction industry, which astonishingly invests one-tenth as much in forward thinking as do comparable industries.
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