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马氏过程的模型选择

Model Selection in Markovian Processes
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/nipsworkshops2011_mannor_markovian/  
主讲教师: Shie Mannor
开课单位: 以色列理工学院
开课时间: 2012-01-25
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
我们解决了如何使用轨迹样本从不同类型的马尔可夫过程中的候选可能状态空间集中进行选择的问题。针对静态模型解决该问题的标准方法使用惩罚最大似然标准,其考虑轨迹的可能性。令人惊讶的是,即使对于简单的完全可观察的有限马尔可夫过程,这些标准也不起作用。我们提出了一个替代标准,并表明它是一致的。然后,我们使用有限样本提供其性能保证,并使用模拟数据和实际数据说明其准确性。我们最终解决了马尔可夫决策过程中模型选择的问题,决策者可以主动选择行动来协助模型选择。
课程简介: We address the problem of how to use a sample of trajectories to choose from a candidate set of possible state spaces in different types of Markov processes. Standard approaches to solving this problem for static models use penalized maximum likelihood criteria that take the likelihood of the trajectory into account. Surprisingly, these criteria do not work even for simple fully observable finite Markov processes. We propose an alternative criterion and show that it is consistent. We then provide a guarantee on its performance with finite samples and illustrate its accuracy using simulated data and real-world data. We finally address the question of model selection in Markov decision processes, where the decision maker can actively select actions to assist in model selection.
关 键 词: 马尔可夫过程; 静态模型; 机器学习
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2020-06-08:吴雨秋(课程编辑志愿者)
阅读次数: 36