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金融泡沫,房地产泡沫,衍生泡沫,以及金融和经济危机

Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/ccss09_sornette_fbreb/  
主讲教师: Didier Sornette
开课单位: 苏黎世联邦理工学院
开课时间: 2009-07-10
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
2008年的金融危机始于一个最初定义明确的以抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)为重点的震中,如今已演变成一场全球经济衰退,其日益严重和持续时间不确定已导致并持续导致数十亿人遭受巨大损失和损害。世界范围内,特别是美国和欧洲,已经启动了大量的央行干预和政府支出计划,以期解冻信贷和Boltster消费。在这里,我提出了证据,并阐明了一个通用框架,使人们能够诊断金融和经济危机蔓延的根本原因:几个泡沫的累积及其相互作用和相互强化导致了一种假象,即一种永久的货币机器,允许金融机构从不可持续的人工过程。考虑到这一诊断,我得出结论,鉴于良好时期未累积的预防性储备不足和巨额负债,许多旨在解决所谓流动性危机和鼓励消费的干预措施都是不明智的,甚至是危险的。最有趣的呈现时间构成了独特的机会,也构成了巨大的挑战,为此我提出了一些建议。
课程简介: The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration had led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, in the hope to unfreeze credit and boltster consumption. Here, I present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement has led to an illusion of a perpetual money machine allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, I conclude that many of the intervention to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encouragemore consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given the lack of precautionary reserves that have been unaccumulated in the good times and the huge liabilities. The most interesting presents times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which I offer a few recommendations.
关 键 词: 金融危机; 证券; 全球经济
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-12-17:lxf
阅读次数: 43