组合预测市场][Combinatorial Prediction Markets]

组合预测市场 Combinatorial Prediction Markets


课程网址:	http://videolectures.net/uai08_hanson_cpm/
主讲教师:	Robin Hanson
开课单位:	乔治梅森大学
开课时间:	2008-07-30
课程语种:	英语
中文简介:	几百个组织现在使用预测市场来预测销售、项目完成日期等等。多年来，这个数字每年翻一番。然而，大多数都是简单的预测市场，每个数字预测一个市场，每个市场有几个交易员。相反，一个单一的组合预测市场让少数交易者能够管理整个组合预测空间。对于数百万或更少的人来说，实现是容易的，而且实验室实验已经证实了可行性和准确性。然而，对于较大的空间，许多开放的计算问题仍然存在。
课程简介:	Several hundred organizations are now using prediction markets to forecast sales, project completion dates, and more. This number has been doubling annually for several years. Most, however, are simple prediction markets, with one market per number forecast, and several traders per market. In contrast, a single combinatorial prediction market lets a few traders manage an entire combinatorial space of forecasts. For millions of numbers or less, implementation is easy, and lab experiments have confirmed feasibility and accuracy. For larger spaces, however, many open computational problems remain.
关键词:	预测市场; 交易者管理; 组合预测空间
课程来源:	视频讲座网
最后编审:	2019-11-05：lxf
阅读次数:	57

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