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航空安全与选举团

Airline Safety and the Electoral College
课程网址: http://videolectures.net/mitworld_barnett_asec/  
主讲教师: Arnold I. Barnett
开课单位: 麻省理工学院
开课时间: 2013-07-29
课程语种: 英语
中文简介:
不知何故，阿诺德·巴奈特（Arnold Barnett）设法将航空事故的主题按照统计概率进行轻松而有时令人欣慰的谈话。在数十年的研究中，他坚定地掌握了测量飞行中死亡率的指标。虽然有很多方法可以看到严峻的数字，但是Barnett已经开发出了自己的首选比率，该比率着眼于“每个随机选择的航班的死亡风险。”应用这种方法，Barnett提出了非常令人放心的统计数据：每次飞行的死亡风险在1999年的1990年期间，第一次世界国内的喷气式飞机服务中，有1,300万人次。另一方面，Barnett提出“公民获得马萨诸塞州州彩票累积奖金的可能性是其下一次航班消亡的2.5倍。”在2000年至2004年的四年间，意外死亡人数为零。在7000万第一次世界航班。 Barnett说，航空安全已经明显改善。但安全性完全是另一回事：“我们在九月的一个星期二失去了所有这一切，”他说。虽然我们“把事故”带到灭绝的边缘“，但我们还没有解决我们”处理邪恶势力“的问题。他强烈要求重新引入积极的旅客行李比赛，他认为这将阻止可能使用的恐怖分子有缺陷的爆炸物检测设备“如轮盘赌轮。”至于修理选举学院，他将其比作风车倾斜，Barnett建议采用加权平均值。这将“几乎消除了胜利者采取一切统治的更糟糕后果。”最大的缺点是什么？ “人们对数学思想有困难。这听起来很复杂。“
课程简介: Somehow Arnold Barnett manages to massage the subject of airline accidents into a breezy and sometimes comforting talk on statistical probabilities. In decades of research, he has taken firm hold of the metrics of measuring mortality in flight. While there are many ways of looking at the grim numbers, Barnett has developed his own preferred ratio, which looks at “death risk per randomly chosen flight.” Applying this approach, Barnett has come up with very reassuring statistics: The death risk per flight on first world domestic jet services, for the period of 1990-1999, was 1 in 13 million. To the air averse, Barnett offers that “a citizen is 2.5 times as likely to win the jackpot of the Massachusetts state lottery as to perish on his or her next flight.” For the four years between 2000 and 2004, there were zero accidental deaths in 70 million first world flights. Airline safety has tangibly improved, says Barnett. But security is another matter entirely: “We lost it all on a Tuesday in September,” he says. While we’ve “brought accidents to the brink of extinction”, we haven’t solved our problems “dealing with the forces of evil.” He strongly urges the reintroduction of positive passenger-baggage match, which he believes will deter terrorists who may use flawed explosive detection devices “as roulette wheels.” As for fixing the Electoral College, which he likens to tilting at windmills, Barnett proposes applying a weighted average. This would “all but eliminate the worse consequences of the winner take all rule.” The biggest drawback? “People have difficulty with mathematical ideas. And this sounds complicated.”
关 键 词: 统计概率; 航空事故; 加权平均值
课程来源: 视频讲座网
最后编审: 2019-05-20：cwx
阅读次数: 123

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