图 书 馆
在发达国家的预期寿命可能会增长远高于预期，即使死亡率条件保持不变Life Expectancy In Developed Countries May Grow Much Higher Than Anticipated Even If Mortality Conditions Stay Constant |
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| 课程网址: | http://videolectures.net/is2011_ediev_mortality/ |
| 主讲教师: | Dalkhat M. Ediev |
| 开课单位: | 奥地利科学院 |
| 开课时间: | 2011-11-17 |
| 课程语种: | 英语 |
| 中文简介: |  |
| 课程简介: | **//Disclaimer:// VideoLectures.NET emphasizes we are not the authors of this recording.** Both the centuries-long tradition of conventional lifespan indicators and the more recent criticism to them ignore the true exposures of individuals to prevailing mortality levels. These exposures form a genuine part of a more comprehensive picture of the prevailing mortality conditions. In low-mortality countries, our estimated duration of human life exceeds the conventional estimates by 15 years. Our theory implies that mortality dynamics are characterised by a considerable inertia. This is used to develop new methods of forecasting, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future mortality. |
| 关 键 词: | 人口社会学; 死亡率动态的特点; 预测方法 |
| 课程来源: | 视频讲座网 |
| 最后编审: | 2020-07-06：heyf |
| 阅读次数: | 71 |